“Natty” Is Down Big. What Comes Next Is More Exciting.

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We contrarians, we’re not ashamed to admit, make our big money dumpster diving for discarded dividends.

When vanilla investors toss trash, it is often our treasure!

I have a hunch this is unfolding in the natural gas market. Prices literally can’t go much lower, which means that eventually they must go higher. Check out this chart—prices are down by 80% in one year!

Nat Gas is Dirt Cheap 

“Natty” prices have fallen from roughly $9 per million British thermal units (MMBtus) to a little more than $2, flattened by unseasonably warm weather and months of dogged supply surplus. Reuters reported in February that “depletion so far this heating season has been around half the seasonal average for the last 10 years.”… Read more

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Over longer time periods, dividend stock prices tend to follow their dividends—for better or for worse.

Sometimes, the stock price gets there first. This can be a race to the sky, in the case of a rising dividend. Or a race to the basement, when a payout is about to be cut.

For example, we had been concerned about Kraft Heinz’s (KHC) dividend for years. Income investors “sniffed out” the inevitable payout cut before the lower quarterly dish became official:

Kraft’s Stock Price Tipped Off Its Dividend Cut

Investors waste no time ditching a troubled dividend when a firm has hacked its payout in the past.… Read more

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Energy prices have rallied furiously, but they likely have further to go. Oil and gas prices last peaked around 2014 and sunk slowly until the black goo hit negative prices in the spring of last year.

A six-year bear market takes more than 13 months to unwind. Which is why energy dividend stocks remain quite attractive.

Oil and gas stocks are 4% yielding on average, which is nearly a full percentage point more than we can get out of real estate investment trusts (REITs) at the moment. And as I’ll show you in a moment, we can squeeze yields of between 5.0% and 9.2% from “Texas tea” if we know just where to look.… Read more

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