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It’s officially May – time to sell the markets and go away? Does this even still apply these days? Technician Carl Swenlin considers these seasonal tendencies with respect to the all-important primary trend… Six-Month Seasonality Turns Unfavorable by Carl Swenlin May 1 marked the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. Research published by […]
We always hear that the bull market may have some additional runway between here and the 2007 historical highs on the S&P. But when adjusting for dividend payouts, are we going to get there sooner than the widely used roadmaps indicate? Technical analyst extraordinaire Carl Swenlin compares the SPY chart with SPX, and concludes that […]
By Carl Swenlin The National Association of Active Investment Managers (www.naaim.org) takes a weekly poll of its members that results in a pretty good sentiment poll. Approximately 40 NAAIM member firms who are active money managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure at the market close on Wednesday. […]
Long-Term SELL Signals by Carl Swenlin, President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com A long-term sell signal is generated when the 50-EMA of a price index crosses down through the 200-EMA (generally known as the Death Cross). At Decision Point we don’t consider the long-term sell signal to be a demand for action. Rather it is a flag that […]
by Carl Swenlin, President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com The Percent Buy Index (PBI) has reached levels seen only at the bear market lows in 2002-2003 and 2009-2010, and we think it has very negative implications. At Decision Point we apply a medium-term timing model to all the stocks in the S&P 500 Index, and track the percentage […]
by Carl Swenlin, President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com READER COMMENT: I have written to you before regarding your comments on volume (“where is the volume?”) which imply that volume “confirms” a move. To me, like many others, volume no longer means anything, or at least not what it used to mean. See the recent speech by Andrew […]
Is Gold a Sure Thing? by Carl Swenlin, President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com With global politicians (and a great many of their constituents) unable to come to grips with impossible levels of debt and spending, it seems that gold is an easy and certain way to hedge against the disaster that seems unavoidable. The logic seems perfect, […]
PMO Buy Signal: Financial SPDR (XLF) by Carl Swenlin (This is an excerpt from July 22, 2011 issue of the blog for Decision Point subscribers.) In our ETF Tracker Daily Report, which tracks over 90 index and sector ETFs, there is a section that tracks the status of PMO buy and sell signals for these […]
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