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Futures Indexes Versus ETFs by Carl Swenlin READER QUESTION: I am always curious why you elect to use a surrogate of a market to provide a technical analysis. The one I have a concern with is using UUP to analyze a H&S formation and mention violation of support. However, the actual dollar chart shows that […]
Lessons from the 1987 Crash by Carl Swenlin It has been 25 years since the 1987 Crash, and I thought it would be a good time review a few things that probably won’t be covered elsewhere in the media. I may have covered these issues in the past, but a refresher can’t hurt. (This is […]
by Carl Swenlin Decision Point publishes a daily Tracker report of our 152 Blue Chip list. This list is composed of the stocks in the S&P 100 Index, the Dow 65, and some large-cap Nasdaq stocks. We also track the Top 10 stocks in ths list, ranked by relative strength measured by Decision Point’s proprietary PMO […]
by Carl Swenlin The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio gives an improved view of sentiment extremes by using cumulative cash flow (CCFL) into Rydex mutual funds rather than using the totals of assets in those funds (which we use for the Rydex Asset Ratio). It is calculated by dividing Money Market plus Bear Funds CCFL by Bull […]
by Carl Swenlin On April 27 I wrote an article titled, Gold At A Decision Point, wherein I observed conditionally that things looked favorable for the start of another leg up. Since then, the technical picture has improved slightly, but it still feels like a struggle. (This is a recent excerpt from the blog for Decision […]
It’s officially May – time to sell the markets and go away? Does this even still apply these days? Technician Carl Swenlin considers these seasonal tendencies with respect to the all-important primary trend… Six-Month Seasonality Turns Unfavorable by Carl Swenlin May 1 marked the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. Research published by […]
The new Schwab Active Trader Sentiment Survey caught the eye of our resident technician Carl Swenlin, as it appears to be unique in surveying active traders rather than the usual investment lumpen. The headline touted a “four-year high” in bullish sentiment – big contrarian signal? Swenlin weighs in… Schwab Active Trader Sentiment by Carl Swenlin […]
Technical extraordinaire Carl Swenlin puts on his fundamental hat here, as he gauges the current valuation of the S&P 500 at large. This seemingly cut-and-dry debate always seems to draw opinions that are all over the map! Swenlin, as usual, keeps a level-head in his analysis. A couple of points I found particularly interesting: How […]
One of the most widely watch barometers for investor sentiment is the AAII survey, as it seems to capture the essence of the armchair investors’ sentiment at the moment. Technical guru Carl Swenlin has been watching the AAII numbers, and is concerned at the high bull to bear ratio we’re seeing today. Sentiment Becoming Too […]
Maybe…in another decade or so, says technical guru Carl Swenlin. Either that, or you may be able to make a fine go of it playing the range. Carl explains… Housing Recovery? by Carl Swenlin The market rally on Wednesday was driven in part by a surge in housing stocks, which was triggered by a favorable […]
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