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by Carl Swenlin The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio gives an improved view of sentiment extremes by using cumulative cash flow (CCFL) into Rydex mutual funds rather than using the totals of assets in those funds (which we use for the Rydex Asset Ratio). It is calculated by dividing Money Market plus Bear Funds CCFL by Bull […]
by Carl Swenlin On April 27 I wrote an article titled, Gold At A Decision Point, wherein I observed conditionally that things looked favorable for the start of another leg up. Since then, the technical picture has improved slightly, but it still feels like a struggle. (This is a recent excerpt from the blog for Decision […]
It’s officially May – time to sell the markets and go away? Does this even still apply these days? Technician Carl Swenlin considers these seasonal tendencies with respect to the all-important primary trend… Six-Month Seasonality Turns Unfavorable by Carl Swenlin May 1 marked the beginning of a 6-month period of unfavorable seasonality. Research published by […]
We always hear that the bull market may have some additional runway between here and the 2007 historical highs on the S&P. But when adjusting for dividend payouts, are we going to get there sooner than the widely used roadmaps indicate? Technical analyst extraordinaire Carl Swenlin compares the SPY chart with SPX, and concludes that […]
Maybe…in another decade or so, says technical guru Carl Swenlin. Either that, or you may be able to make a fine go of it playing the range. Carl explains… Housing Recovery? by Carl Swenlin The market rally on Wednesday was driven in part by a surge in housing stocks, which was triggered by a favorable […]
This IS still a secular bear market…right? I have to admit that I’ve been totally miffed by the relentless rally that began in March 2009. At least I’m in very good company – expert technician and Contrary Investing favorite Carl Swenlin also admits he’s been perplexed as well… Different Kind of Bull Market By Carl […]
By Carl Swenlin The National Association of Active Investment Managers (www.naaim.org) takes a weekly poll of its members that results in a pretty good sentiment poll. Approximately 40 NAAIM member firms who are active money managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure at the market close on Wednesday. […]
By Carl Swenlin QUESTION: Carl, I have read a lot of articles recently indicating gold miner stocks should go up and outpace gold. So far nothing but a drop in goldminers. Would it be possible for you to show charts of GDX and GDXJ with your comments on one of your daily posts? Thank you […]
by Carl Swenlin In the last month or so gold has formed a double top that could be the start of a much needed correction for the metal. Specifically the chart below shows an Adam & Eve double top. The first top is sharp and spiky, and the second is more rounded, depicting a labored […]
Bear Market Rules Apply by Carl Swenlin, President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com On August 17 the S&P 500 Index 50-EMA crossed down through the 200-EMA, declairing by our definition that the long-term trend was down and that we were in a bear market. When this happens, we remind ourselves that “bear market rules apply,” and that we […]
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