How To Dodge Whiplash With Rock Steady Dividend Stocks

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No investment portfolio moves up in a straight line. But in a fast-changing environment like this one, it is important for investors to do their best to limit volatility as much as they can by a focus on high-quality, low-risk stocks.

Too bad most investors are obsessed with chasing fads, though.

First, it was the outperformance of energy stocks in early 2022. Now it’s the resurgence of select biotech stocks that have snapped back 20% or 30% in just a few weeks. And undoubtedly, it will be something else with even more hype behind it by Christmastime.

The problem with fads is that you can almost never predict how long they will last, or what will come next.… Read more

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In the current environment, with more downside likely to come, one of the best things you and I can do is nothing.

… or at least, next to nothing.

I recently wrote about the virtues of a “no beta” portfolio—basically holding on to cash until it’s time to “back up the truck” at a major market bottom.

But I left the door open—”if you must buy, please promise me you’ll keep it low beta. It’s the next best option to low-beta cash”—and for good reason.

The Case for Low Beta

“Anyone who studies finance learns early on that risk and reward go hand in hand and that with higher expected returns come higher risks.Read more

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Let me start with a special shout out to our dedicated readers at Barron’s. Here at Contrarian Outlook, we’ve been drawing up the playbook to retire on dividends for years (Two years ago, we literally wrote the book on the retirement strategy.)

So it was a hoot to see Barron’s run a cover story about retiring on dividends. But I have a bit of constructive criticism about the piece: the dividend stocks highlighted in the feature article had yields too low to actually retire on.

The magazine’s 10 buys included Coca-Cola (KO), International Business Machines (IBM) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and had an average current yield of 4.1% between them (as of the time the piece was written).… Read more

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Let me start with a special shout out to our dedicated readers at Barron’s. Here at Contrarian Outlook, we’ve been drawing up the playbook to retire on dividends for years (Two years ago, we literally wrote the book on the retirement strategy.)

So it was a hoot to see Barron’s run a cover story about retiring on dividends. But I have a bit of constructive criticism about the piece: the dividend stocks highlighted in the feature article had yields too low to actually retire on.

The magazine’s 10 buys included Coca-Cola (KO), International Business Machines (IBM) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and had an average current yield of 4.1% between them (as of the time the piece was written).… Read more

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A stock’s yield is only as good as its cash flow because, after all, a dividend is nothing more than a promise from a company.

CenturyLink (CTL) recently reminded us of this. Its promised $0.54 per share dividend exceeded its ability to pay. The firm’s payout ratio of 130% – the percentage of profits that it was paying as dividends – was an absurd overpromise that couldn’t last forever:

CenturyLink’s Payout Promise Was Always on Borrowed Time

CEO Jeffrey Storey insisted his team remained “committed to and confident in our ability to maintain the dividend.” I understood the commitment, but questioned the confidence – taking on debt to pay dividends is a losing game.… Read more

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The busiest week for earnings so far this quarter delivered several positive surprises, as the broader U.S. market averages finished off the best January performance in three decades.

Industrial and Energy stocks were the big winners for the month, led by an 18% gain in the underlying price of crude oil. On the other hand, Utility and Healthcare names have lagged in the opening weeks of 2019.

FOMC Flinches and Jobs Growth Surprises

There was little belief that Chairman Powell and the Fed would change interest rates on Wednesday, but the tone of their commentary did turn decidedly more dovish this week.… Read more

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Most people are chasing big dividend payers right now in this “3% world” we live in. Meanwhile, a small group of “hidden yield” stocks are quietly handing smart investors growing income streams PLUS annual returns of 12%, 17.3%, or more.

Let’s talk about how to find these stocks, and bank 12% returns or better every single year, by following a simple two-step formula.

See, everyone wants dividend stocks with good current yields. It’s easy to scan a newspaper or financial website and pick out the stocks that are paying 3%, 4%, 8% or whatever number you might consider “good.”

Yet that’s NOT the right way to pick dividend stocks.…
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When blue chips get too popular – like the five I’m going to show you today – these “safe stocks” can actually be dangerous to continue holding in your portfolio.

The problem with blue-chip stocks? Call it the “Curse of the Dow.” The Curse says a stock that joins the Dow Jones Industrial Average will essentially hit a wall, underperforming in the ensuing months compared to how it performed before ascension. It’s not perfect, but it’s close – since 1999, 15 of 16 stocks that have joined the Dow have averaged 1% gains over the next six months, but averaged 11% gains in the six months before inclusion.

Why? There are a few factors, but one of the most prevailing is that by the point a stock has joined the Dow, it’s typically nearing the end of its growth ramp and reaching the slower-growth “mature” part of the business cycle. …
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