Inflation Soars … Rates Fall? Here’s the Silly Error Many Investors Are Making Now

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When it comes to the economy, we’re in a bit of a weird spot: The data tells us that, despite inflation fears, interest rates are likely to fall in the year ahead.

Falling rates point in one clear direction for us contrarian income-seekers: corporate bonds. Our preferred way to tap into them? Discounted closed-end funds (CEFs) with big dividend yields.

If investors know any corporate-bond CEFs at all, they probably know the PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI). It’s the biggest of the bunch, with a $5.1-billion market cap and a monster 13.3% yield.

With that in mind, PDI is a good gauge of investor interest in corporate-bond CEFs, and that interest is booming, as we’ll see in a moment.… Read more

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Contrarians that we are, we know when we hear things that sound like “common wisdom,” we need to look just a little bit deeper.

Today, that’s what we’re going to do, with a common refrain we’re hearing a lot—that tariffs will lead to a spike in interest rates.

Then we’ll look at a bond play that’s set to benefit from this misunderstood mantra. This smartly run fund pays a dividend that yields 10.4% and comes our way monthly, too.

Tariffs Here, Tariffs There …

To be sure, tariffs have arrived. President Trump has imposed a 10% levy on all products China exports to the US (and 15% on liquefied natural gas and certain types of coal), effective last Tuesday.… Read more

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Trump 2.0 has exploded out of the gate, and we’re quickly lining up the best bond buys in response—including an 8.8% payer we’ll dive into below.

“Bond Vigilantes” May Return (But We’re Not Waiting Around)

“Wait, we’re buying bonds now?” you might be thinking. “Aren’t inflation and rates going to tick higher in the new administration?”

It’s a reasonable question. And yes, when rates go up, bonds go down. That’s just the way it works in bond-land.

Tariffs are on the way. Ditto mass deportations. And last I checked, the federal government was running a $2-trillion deficit. (And let’s be honest, DOGE or no, politicians are in no hurry to take that problem on.)… Read more

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We launched our CEF Insider newsletter nearly eight years ago, in March 2017, and we’ve seen a lot since then: a pandemic, interest-rate swings, dramatic fights between fund managers and activist shareholders, and more.

But for me, the most exciting event has been the over 200% profit one of our long-time picks, a closed-end fund (CEF) called the Adams Diversified Equity Fund (ADX), has delivered to shareholders as of this writing.

Market-Beating Gains With ADX

With a 204.3% return currently as I write this, ADX actually beat the S&P 500 index fund that many American investors opt for: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which is up just 171.5% over the same time period.… Read more

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At times like these, with the economic outlook uncertain and volatility likely, we want to be certain of one thing: We’re still in stocks (and stock-focused funds)! But of course, we want to make sure we’re tempering our risk, as well.

Because one thing we can be sure of is that any volatility, no matter if it’s tied to an election or any other outside event, will pass. The last thing we want is to be out of the market when it does. (And of course, we want to keep our dividends rolling in, especially in volatile times.)

That brings me to what I want to discuss today—two things, actually.… Read more

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Interest rates are (finally!) set to fall. As they do, we’re going to bag bargain-priced 8%+ dividends from a pattern we can set our watches to at times like this.

I’m talking about the mainstream crowd’s habit of “reaching for yield” when Powell & Co. drop rates, eroding yields on CDs, Treasuries and the like.

As these investors go on the hunt for higher payouts, I expect them to flock to closed-end funds (CEFs), one of our favorite income plays, thanks to the 8%+ yields these funds kick out.

But of course, we need to make sure we’re front-running the crowd into the right CEFs: those with high, safe, and ideally monthly payouts, while sidestepping the many dogs out there.… Read more

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The spike in volatility we’ve seen in the last month has gotten me thinking a lot about the last decade—when bonds were a bust and tech ruled the day.

Put yourself back in that (seemingly innocent) time for a second.

If you had money to invest back then, you had one choice: stocks. With rock-bottom interest rates, bonds were a bust. And stocks—particularly tech stocks, which tend to do better when rates are low—soared.

You can clearly see the massive scale of the 2010’s tech surge in the chart below, with tech shown by the benchmark ETF for the sector, in purple.… Read more

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Think back just a couple weeks: The “yen carry trade” had investors running scared, and we had a terrific opportunity to buy stocks—better still our favorite income plays on stocks: closed-end funds (CEFs) yielding 8%+.

But wow, was that window brief! Stocks have more than recovered since, and are what I’d call highly valued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 27.5.

Let me be clear: I’m not saying stocks are overvalued: They’re likely to keep posting good returns because earnings are rising, and the economy is still dodging the recession we’ve been warned about for three years now.… Read more

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Stock market predictions, of course, are just that—predictions. All of them (including mine!) should be taken with a grain of salt.

I normally prefer to avoid making them. But every now and then I partake because, well, the prediction game is fun! And we do need some kind of forecast to work from when it comes to buying stocks—and our favorite income plays: 8%+ yielding closed-end funds (CEFs).

The key, of course, is knowing when to stick to your forecasts and when to change tack. So as we move past the August 5 correction and toward the final third of 2024, it’s a good time to check in on a couple predictions I made back in January and see how they’re playing out.… Read more

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Here’s the thing about high-yield closed-end funds (CEFs): sometimes a CEF will seem to have all the earmarks of a terrific investment: high (and monthly) dividends, reasonable fees and reputable management. But it’ll still come up short.

We, of course, love CEFs and see them as the critical pieces of our income portfolios. The portfolio of my CEF Insider service, for example, holds plenty of top-quality buys and yields 9% as I write this.

But when picking these funds, we need to make sure we don’t let a big name, high yield or so-called “low” fees dominate our thinking. We also need to look deeper, at factors like past performance and even management’s track record with its other funds.… Read more

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