One year ago, I wrote to you that it was time to buy bonds again. The “index huggers” who only know SPY thought we were nuts for talking fixed income.
The popular narrative at the time (which aged like boxed wine) was that interest rates would rocket to the moon in order to contain inflation. Or help the government fund its ballooning deficit. Or some line of reasoning.
When rates rise, bond prices fall. Hence, the prevailing vanilla sentiment was that bonds were for bums.
We original thinkers disagreed. We reasoned—correctly—that rates fall when recession fears grow. Period.… Read more
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