If you’re serious about investing, you have to develop a head for math. Hard numbers not only keep you grounded, but sometimes offer the only way to make sense of the weird ways that Wall Street works.
Consider that odd fact I shared recently about how a 50% loss followed by a 50% gain actually leaves you 25% in the hole. Strange, but true!
And here’s another fun fact: In a room of just 23 people there’s a 50/50 chance that two people share the same birthday. In a room of 40 people, the chance is more than 90%… And at 55, the chance is 99%.
It’s weird, but it’s how probability works.
I won’t bore you with the specifics, but here’s a short explainer of the math if you’re curious why things work that way. What I really want to talk about is what this birthday trick means when it comes to saving for retirement.
Here’s the gist: Almost everything in life has a diminishing rate of return. And working hard to turn 99.5% odds into 99.6% odds… well, it’s just not worth the effort.
That’s why I’m convinced that just one or two trades a month is the maximum amount that any investor should be making. Even in a market like this one.
Because a portfolio of 200 or 300 stocks isn’t going to do a whole lot more for you than 20 or 30 well-researched investments can.
Other than creating a whole lot more headaches and complexity, of course.
More Isn’t Always More
You’ve probably heard about the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund benchmarked to the Nasdaq 100 that is currently #2 ETF on Wall Street as measured by daily trading volume.
But here’s something you may not know — 13% of this entire fund is in one company, Apple Inc. (AAPL).
Furthermore, when you add up the top holdings, you get nearly 42% of all assets in just five stocks.
Now, I take issue with the Big Tech bias of QQQ. Such major reliance on Silicon Valley makes me queasy – particularly since three of those five companies don’t pay a penny in dividends.
But big picture, I have no problem with a short list of stocks that do most of the legwork. That’s just how investing works.
As further proof, I’ll note that this Invesco ETF isn’t alone in focusing on a small portfolio to achieve a tactical approach. Take the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), which has $16 billion in assets and is the most popular way to play the utilities sector. That fund has just 30 total positions. There’s also the $8 billion Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC), which has less than that at just 25 holdings.
A short list of holdings makes sense, if you think about it. After all, a tactical approach like sector investing necessarily demands you cut out stocks that don’t fit your strategy.
Sure, you might be able to build a utility or a tech fund with 2X or 3X or even 5X the holdings.
But based on the popularity of these funds, it’s simply not necessary.
And if you hold everything, you will never have an edge.
Secure Your Retirement with Two Trades Per Month
When it comes to sector funds or large cap tech funds, there’s an embarrassment of ETFs on Wall Street.
But if you’re in the market for a dividend ETF … well, the landscape is pretty disappointing.
There aren’t a ton of good options because the typical exchange traded funds offer the same tired blue chips, with yields that barely crack the 2% mark.
But here’s the good news. While there may not be a good dividend ETF out there, the exchange-traded fund universe should at least prove to you that you don’t need a thirty-page portfolio statement to make a tactical investment based on your personal strategy.
All you need is just 20 or 30 good stocks. And if your holding period is long enough, that means you’re only making one or two trades per month.
Take a stock like Consolidated Edison (ED). This utility stock has a ton going for it right now, including:
- Positive YTD returns amid a challenging market
- A 3.6% dividend yield, more than twice that of the S&P 500
- An amazing 48 years of consecutive dividend increases
- A wide moat and recession-proof business
This is a best-in-class stock, and one worth including in your portfolio if you’re interested in long-term income potential.
All you need is two dozen more, and the patience to stick with them.
Unlock Fast-Growing Dividends with a Hand-Picked Portfolio of Low-Risk Stocks
I understand why many investors gravitate to index funds and ETFs. They’re easy to understand, and easy to trade.
But they simply don’t work for investors who are serious about income.
And besides, it’s worth noting that most ETFs aren’t working for ANYONE in 2022. A massive restructuring driven by macroeconomic pressures like inflation and rising rates are changing the most basic ways the global economy works.
That means you need to change how your portfolio works, too.
This “Great American Reset” is tearing index funds to pieces, because vanilla ETFs that are weighted by market cap are over-reliant on the old favorites and overlook the stocks that have the most to offer in the environment of the future.
But here’s the good news. As I just explained, you don’t have to spend hours glued to your smartphone or laptop to keep pace. All you need is just one or two trades a month.
Presuming you know what to buy, of course.
Let us show you how to change course and reallocate your portfolio to the right stocks, at the right time.
We’ve just published two important reports that will show you the way — 8 “Old Guard” stocks to SELL immediately, and 7 American Reset stocks to BUY for predictable and consistent returns of 15%+ per year.
All this without taking on unnecessary risk, and without settling for the same old low-yield Blue Chips.
Don’t settle for the same old underperforming index funds. Tap into the power of these “hidden yields” and start seizing 15%+ annual returns.
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