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Paul Ryan’s Speech Boosts Romney’s Chances – 0.9% To Be Exact

by Brett on August 30, 2012

By now, you’ve heard the takes on Paul Ryan’s speech from last night.  But what does the market think?

Mr. Market is nodding along with many of the pundits, as Intrade’s “Long President Romney” contracts are trading up 0.9% at the moment.

Effect of Paul Ryan Speech on Romney Chances

Source: (Click to enlarge)

The “real” experts – as in, the degenerates betting actual money on this stuff – still favor Obama’s chances.  But the Bull Market in Mitt rolls along, nearing a breakout:

2012 Romney Presidency Intrade Chart

Source: (Click to enlarge)

Has the market already “priced in” next week’s Democratic National Convention?  Or should trend followers lay low until these catalyst events have settled?  It will be interesting to see how the Intrade market reacts to Romney’s speech tonight, and the DNC next week.

UPDATE: An elephant buying up Mitt!  Shares now trading up 1.8% on the day.  Here’s the current Long President Mitt contract quote from Intrade.

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