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So far so good on that short S&P 500 position we initiated Wednesday afternoon via the futures market. We had a beautiful nosedive in equities yesterday – it was truly breathtaking, really – followed up by a somewhat muted rally that didn’t get going until late in today’s trading day. Heading into Thursday’s trading, the […]
Regular readers know that I’ve been anxious – TOO anxious – to short the S&P 500. The reflation rally was determined to “end when it ends” – and not a moment sooner. Although we are still trading above the magical 200-day moving average, I have to believe that the odds are that the current trend […]
Fellow contrarians know that we’ve been watching the crude oil market for a sign of where this rally may be heading. Right now, crude looks absolutely gassed. It dropped below it’s 200 day moving average last week (yes, the 200-day MA that we love to watch) – and has just managed to bounce up a […]
Yesterday we mused that a turning point may be appearing in the markets, as indicated by the negative divergences that are popping up. In a rare act of God, we were right! Well, at least for a day. And they’ll never be able to take that away from us. Stocks, commodities, and just about everything […]
Asset prices are continuing to decouple, slowly but surely, it appears. Today, equities and energy were up big – while the rest of the commodity sectors had a bad case of “The Mondays”: Why is this potentially significant? Because markets have been moving more or less in tandem for 5 or 6 years now – […]
Last week, a buddy from college sends me an email: “Hey, I got a little bit of cash sitting around, earning next to nothing in a savings account. Anything you’d recommend to get this cash working for me?” “Not really – everything looks pricey right now…hey, does that mean you paid off your law school […]
Checking in on Some Key Charts Major indices hit new recovery highs today, with the DOW hitting it’s highest mark in the last 18 months. Trading volume remains tepid, however – as you can see from this chart of the S&P 500, this recent rally appears to lack some conviction: Rallies have been occurring on […]
Another up day for equities, and investors appear to be feeling pretty good about things. According to the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, investors haven’t felt this upbeat about things since January: Investors have been feeling on the up and up of late. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Unfortunately investor bullishness is a classic contrarian indicator […]
On Monday, I penned a piece for Casey’s Daily Dispatch that highlighted the investment and geopolitical conclusions that our local “phyle” reached during our most recent meeting. Last night our Sacramento Phyle got together at a local restaurant to banter about the usual talk you’d expect to overhear at such a place – like government […]
Last week our local “Casey Research Phyle” got together at a local restaurant to banter about the usual talk you’d expect to overhear at such a place – like government confiscation of retirement plans, expatriation, wiring money to Central America, and our favorite shorting techniques – you know, the usual. In these turbulent economic and […]
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