Be Careful – The “Dumb Money” is 71% Confident in Stocks Continuing to Rally

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The “dumb money” is starting to work itself into a frenzy – Steve Sjuggerud writes in today’s DailyWealth: Today, “the Dumb Money is 71% confident in a rally,” my friend Jason Goepfert wrote. Jason tracks investor sentiment through his website SentimenTrader. The last time the Dumb Money was this optimistic was back in April, right before the […]

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Saw this cool new software product covered by TechCrunch over the weekend that scours the web to gauge media sentiment on a given stock. Very neat idea – as contrarians we’re always trying to be long when pessimism is high, and short when optimism is peaking.  The Stock Sonar looks very intriguing as a potential […]

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Today, we got that bounce in stocks that we thought might be coming – from yesterday’s stock market wrap: I’m not sure if I’d initiate a new S&P short position at this juncture – as the contrarian in me thinks we’ve got to see some sort of short-term pop soon.  Markets rarely cooperate with broader […]

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Wall Street is going crazy for MLPs these days!  The safe, stable, dividend yield of a master limited partnership (MLP) is all the rage right now with investors.  Which is precisely the reason you might want to steer clear of this sector for a bit. Tom Dyson elaborates in his Daily Wealth column: Whenever you […]

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On Tuesday, Seeking Alpha published a “timely” piece that I penned entitled 3 Reasons This Rally Is Toast – just in time to see markets rally over 2% on the day! The article generated a significant amount of buzz on the site – in fact, as I write this Wednesday afternoon, it’s currently the second most […]

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Stocks just wrapped up their worst month since February 2009 – the last full month of the last leg down of the 08-09 stock market crash.  So how are investors feeling? Not great – but all things considered, not too bad either. The Wall Street Journal (one of our favorite contrarian indicators) is running a […]

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The Chicago Board Options Exchange publishes a daily report detailing open put vs. call option positions of traders.  Since this represents bets made on stock prices rising vs. falling in the near future, it’s an interesting gauge of sentiment. Today I pulled this data since 2004 from the CBOE’s website, and plotted the 200-day simple […]

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No Fear, Again: Market Participants Are Opting For Extra Yield, Risk Be Damned Last week, a buddy from college sends me an email: “Hey, I got a little bit of cash sitting around, earning next to nothing in a savings account. Anything you’d recommend to get this cash working for me?” “Not really – everything […]

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Last week, a buddy from college sends me an email: “Hey, I got a little bit of cash sitting around, earning next to nothing in a savings account. Anything you’d recommend to get this cash working for me?” “Not really – everything looks pricey right now…hey, does that mean you paid off your law school […]

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Another up day for equities, and investors appear to be feeling pretty good about things. According to the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, investors haven’t felt this upbeat about things since January: Investors have been feeling on the up and up of late. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Unfortunately investor bullishness is a classic contrarian indicator […]

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