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Buy and hold. Stocks for the long run. Diversify. These investment mantras were gospel during the great bull market of the 80s and 90s. Drinking this Kool-Aid will get you slaughtered today. There is no freaking way I would “buy and hold” anything right now. Too dangerous. Buy and hold hasn’t worked over the past […]
Regular readers know that we’ve been anxiously awaiting the decoupling of commodities and currencies from stocks. These asset classes are historically uncorrelated. That changed late last year when the financial world ended, and everything went down the crapper at about the same speed. Except, of course, the US dollar and bonds…but I digress… Today stocks […]
The biggest investing mistake I ever made was not getting out of commodities during the Great Deleveraging of ’08/’09. I had a pretty good beat on the major trends – stocks were highly vulnerable, the US could be in for some very bad things, etc – but I failed to project the effect that […]
How Bout a Little Shot of Inflation With Your Bear Market Rally? Well we’ve finally got the bear market rally many of us have been waiting for, kicking into high gear. I know I don’t have to remind you, dear reader, that most of the largest stock market rallies in history occurred during nasty bear […]
This morning, I authored a guest piece for the folks at Commodity News Center, breaking down the recent sugar rally. Regular readers will be quite familiar with the fundamental factors discussed. I always try to constantly re-examine my assumptions to make sure I’m not falling in love with a trade – if you’ve got a […]
Milton Friedman said that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Judging by the recent price action in many of the soft and agricultural commodities, they appear to agree. Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is making a bet the Friedman was wrong. Bernanke believes that because Friedman did much of his […]
The Daily Show sent correspondent Wyatt Cenac to Sweeden to “invesigate” the effects of socialsm in person. Hilarious bit – perfect for a Friday. The Daily Show With Jon Stewart M – Th 11p / 10c The Stockholm Syndrome thedailyshow.com Daily ShowFull Episodes Economic Crisis First 100 Days The Daily Show With Jon Stewart M […]
Sugar Futures Surge to a 6-Month High Sugar futures rallied nearly 4% on Friday, over half a cent, to close the week at 14.18. Looks like we’ve got a new breakout to the upside! Sugar futures continue their steady climb. (Source: Barchart.com) The market continued to focus on the news that India may turn into […]
For a few weeks now, we’ve been watching the commodity markets with rapt attention, asking ourselves: “Has the next commodity bull market officially begun?” From the charts, it looks like broader commodity indeces may have finally formed a bottom. Source: BarChart.com So if the wind is indeed once again at the back of us commodity […]
Have Orange Juice futures finally found a bottom? May Orange Juice futures gained nearly 10% this week, on speculation that drought conditions in Florida could damper yields. As you can see, OJ has been in free fall over the past 14 months, dropping roughly in half from peak to trough. Prices appear to have been […]
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