Hedge Funds Have Biggest Short Position on S&P Since December 2008

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Further evidence this relief rally has a lot more to run? Hedge funds have a massive net short position on the S&P 500 – their largest since December 2008.  Check out this chart! Hedge funds held a net short position of 71,980 short contracts at August 16, according to a monthly report on global asset […]

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Well we were either early, or wrong, on our persistent warnings that the return of deflation was imminent.  And experienced investors and traders know that you should never fight the tape! The tape kicked off 2011 with a definitive message that the bulls – and/or the inflationists – are still in the driver’s seat.  Crude […]

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Our pal Brian Hunt has been doing an excellent job of finding favorite economic indicators that are surprisingly breaking out, rather than down. Last week, Brian noted that Dr. Copper was surging, despite the overall gloomy economic outlook: While you can barely watch a minute of financial television without hearing about horrid unemployment numbers, gloomy […]

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There’s still not much of an appetite to buy stocks – but volume remains very quiet as the dog days of summer wind down. We’ve been expecting a decline in stocks, and have been watching for slowly rising volume to accompany these declines to give us a heads up that there is some “umph” behind […]

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We’ve taken a fun exploratory look at internet search terms and their potential correlation (or lack thereof) with financial asset prices before (See: Using Google Trends as a Leading Indicator). That piece actually found its way to Google Headquarters in Mountain View, as I was contacted by someone from Google Finance who asked if I’d […]

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We’ve been following the financial sector throughout the entire “reflation rally”, figuring that a breakdown in financial stocks may precede a breakdown in the broader market.  Financials led the way down in 2007, and they led the way up in 2009 – so can they threepeat and lead the way down once again here in […]

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Until today, bonds had been rallying in tandem with stocks for the last 3 months.  That’s a bit of a rarity – one that has historically preceded a stock market collapse or two. A couple of observations here – the first from David Rosenberg, courtesy of Pragmatic Capitalism: “The yield on the 10-year note hit […]

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These days we are keeping a keen eye on markets that have been reliable leading indicators of the stock market.  Since 2004 or so, markets have become quite interrelated, creating a lot of interesting relationships in markets that previously had little or no correlation. The correlation of course peaked during the 2007-2009 downturn, when EVERYTHING […]

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A favorite exercise of mine is to take a look at the board and see what assets are not participating in strong rallies on days like today.  And it looks like there were a few noticeable absentees in the commodity sector that did not make it for today’s raging campfire of a good time! (Ed. […]

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Soon after stocks bottomed on March 6, 2009, we noticed that commodity prices – most notably agriculture prices – were starting to rally.  In early May, we wrote about the rally in soft commodities, and what it implied for the inflation/deflation outlook: A few weeks ago (April ’09), we noticed that not only had commodities appeared […]

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About Author

Brett

Hi, I’m Brett Owens – and I’m a financial junkie. My “problem” started incollege, when I got a little dose of the stock market – man, was I hooked…in no time, I was reading the Wall Street Journal religously.

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