These 7.5% Yields Will Survive a 2008 Repeat

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“I’m 11 years older now. Brett, I just can’t have a repeat of 2008,” my new subscribers often share.

“Now tell me which of these dividends will survive a bear market like that. I want to buy only the safest yields,” they continue.

Fortunately I’m no stranger to dividends that thrive in bear markets. We fittingly launched the Contrarian Income Report months before the market’s tantrum in 2016. The S&P 500 promptly dropped 10% as a welcome present!

It was no problem for our strong dividends, however. In fact, subscribers who focused on their own holdings rather than the financial news likely have missed the broader carnage altogether.… Read more

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The yield curve is now “inverted.” This warning has preceded “seven of four” recent bear markets (more on this in a moment). Time to be safe and sell everything?

Before we stash cash in the mattress, let’s review the actual facts. Fundamental Capital’s Troy Bombardia, one of my favorite historical finance quants, has run the numbers on what happens to the S&P 500 when the 10-year “long” yield dives below the three-month rate:

  • In 1966, 1973, 2000 and 2006, an inverted yield curve indeed preceded a big stock market pullback (usually by a year or two).
  • Meanwhile in 1978, 1980 and 1989 it didn’t mean much.

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Many retirees like the idea of a “50/50” portfolio that’s half bonds and half stocks. There’s even research that shows withdrawal rates of 3% and 4% may be safer with this mix than they’d be with 100% stocks.

That’s all well and good but doesn’t concern me much. I’m a “No Withdrawal” guy. I spent many late nights in college working up Monte Carlo simulations, where we’d run scenarios 50,000 times to figure out the optimal placement of, say, ambulances in a city to minimize the average response time to an emergency. This type of fancy modeling can work well when you’re able to use the law of large numbers to map the likelihood of every possible situation.… Read more

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“Hey Brett – is it time for us to sell MPW?”

Nothing makes subscribers more anxious to bank gains like a 105% winner! That’s what Medical Properties Trust (MPW) has delivered to us since we bought it in November 2015. Funny thing is, I’ve been getting questions about selling the stock since it was a mere double-digit gain for us. It’s a good thing we let this winner run!

Why We Let Our Winners Run

It’s especially important to let winners run when they are growing their dividend consistently. There’s rarely any reason to actually sell a stock if the company is consistently growing its profits and dishing them to shareholders.… Read more

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Smart income investors know that the best REITs (real estate investment trusts) do just fine as rates rise. That’s been the case historically, and they’re rally again during this rate hike cycle too.

Why? Because elite landlords simply keep raising their rents.  These higher cash flows translate to higher dividends, and higher stock prices, regardless of what the Fed is up to.

For example, almost three years ago I recommended Medical Properties Trust (MPW) to my Contrarian Income Report subscribers. It was paying nearly 8% at the time – discarded to the bargain bin because the first-level types fretted that higher rates would harm its ability to collect rent checks from its hospital operators.… Read more

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Money-losing firm India Globalization Capital (IGC) found the magic formula. They put the 2018 and 2017 investing buzzwords side-by-side:

  1. Cannabis, and
  2. Blockchain.

The savvy marketers at IGC then introduced an energy drink infused with hemp, and wow, what a rush!

IGC Rises 10-Fold on Buzzwords

We level-headed contrarians should stay away from this circus. In fact, you need to be honest with yourself about the latest weed craze. If you’re tempted at all to buy this junk, it’s better if you change the channel.

Many marketers know that you and your peers are fixating on these parabolic charts. It’s going to end in tears, but they don’t care.… Read more

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“Hey Brett, what do you think of telecom?”

“Well, let’s take Verizon (VZ). It pays a 5% dividend. It’s growing that dividend by about 2% or so per year. So I’d expect the stock to return 7% or so in the years ahead,” I replied.

“What about profitability metrics like return on invested capital (ROIC)? Or margins? Or…?” my investor friend rebutted.

“If it doesn’t flow through to a higher dividend, then it doesn’t really matter.”

I was “grilled” with many thoughtful dividend-related questions while speaking to subscribers and fellow income hounds at Denver’s AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) chapter last week.…
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About Author

Brett

Hi, I’m Brett Owens – and I’m a financial junkie. My “problem” started incollege, when I got a little dose of the stock market – man, was I hooked…in no time, I was reading the Wall Street Journal religously.

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