3 Cheap Dividends “Spring-Loaded” to Surge When Rates Drop

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Look, we’re going to get a slowdown here in America this year—two years’ worth of rate hikes are going to hit home. Fact.

So I’m going to suggest we do something you might find a little bit weird: buy US stocks. But not any US stocks—and certainly not “dividend-dud” ETFs like the ever-popular SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)!

No way.

Instead we’re shopping in the small(er) cap aisle, for stocks in the midcap range kicking out surging dividends. We love these overlooked US-based dividend plays now because:

They’re cheap: while SPY has soared 19% in the last year, midcaps have treaded water, with the Vanguard Mid Cap ETF (VO)—in orange below—up just 4%.… Read more

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Shall we turn 2023 into a bounce back year for our retirement portfolios?

How about we shoot for, say, 23% total returns?

The surest way to do it is by employing a technique I call the dividend magnet.

It’s safe. Reliable. And works beautifully on the back side of a bear market.

I recently gave a guest lecture for a finance class at California State University, Sacramento. One of the students, to put it lightly, was excited to make money in stocks.

His hand went up from the back of the classroom. (Nobody sits in the front rows. Some things never change!)… Read more

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There’s no denying that 2022 was the year of energy. A look at the top 10 performers in the S&P 500 index proves that plain as day.

They are, in descending order:

  1. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) – 119%
  2. Hess (HES) – 94%
  3. ExxonMobil (XOM) – 87%
  4. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) – 87%
  5. Schlumberger (SLB) – 81%
  6. APA Corporation (APA) – 76%
  7. Valero Energy (VLO) – 75%
  8. Halliburton (HAL) – 75%
  9. FirstSolar (FSLR) – 72%
  10. ConocoPhillips (COP) – 72%

Clearly energy was on the top of the heap over the last 12 months…

… But as the old saying goes, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.… Read more

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REITs (real estate investment trusts) are still delivering roughly twice the income of the broader market. And that’s just the sector average.

Four highly profitable REITs in particular are yielding 4% and up today. We’ll discuss them in a moment.

Interest rates are rising, and “common wisdom” says it’s a bad time to buy REITs because they behave like bonds. Wrong.

As long as the economy keeps chugging along, and these specific rents are getting paid, then the dividends are going to continue being dished. Period. And we’re all about the dividends here at Contrarian Outlook.

S&P Global research notes that rising interest rates “are frequently associated with economic growth and rising inflation, which can indeed be a boon for the real estate sector.… Read more

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I typically make a trip out to Las Vegas every couple of years, although the pandemic of late has busted those plans.

I’m a big fan of blackjack; it just always seemed like the one game at the casino I could play where my skills gave me an opportunity to win.

I was sitting at a table at the Tropicana on the Vegas strip a few years back, holed up with four other gamblers, hoping for a slow crawl to a big win at the tables.

I was playing small, only $15 per hand, but I got on a roll that seemed like it couldn’t be stopped.… Read more

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As we Americans reemerge from our homes, select “return to normal” dividend payers are poised to deliver big gains. I’m talking about upside of 40% in addition to their 4% to 10% current yields.

But aren’t recovery stocks already expensive? We recently discussed how Americans aren’t exactly sleeping on the American vacation. The Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ), which includes restaurants, hotels, casinos and more, has gone skyward of late—and it’s not alone.

A quick look at some of the best ETFs over the past three months shows where investors believe the reopening money is heading:

Unfortunately for income investors, these industries tend not to pay dividends.… Read more

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Real estate investment trusts (REITs) and their typically high dividend yields are a key part of a payout-powered retirement portfolio that’s built to dish out higher and higher dividends every single year.

The five REITs we’ll discuss today will pay you 4% to 7.3% per year in dividends alone. And this income stream will only grow as time passes, because these firms have growing cash flow streams they must pass on to shareholders in order to keep their privileged REIT status.

REITs may not get much mainstream coverage, but the academics are starting to catch on to these dividend machines. Last year, I pointed you to a study from Wilshire Research that showed “dramatic” results when REITs were added to a retirement portfolio.… Read more

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The yield on the benchmark, 10-year U.S. Treasury note has moved above 3% in May, which is the highest it’s been since 2011.

This is notable to REIT investors for multiple reasons. First, higher interest rates (both short-term and long-term) mean that bank CD’s and other lower-risk income investments are offering higher competitive yields.

Of equal note, is the fact that rising long-term interest rates are now factoring into higher discount rates for fundamental valuation models. In other words, investors will now require higher dividends to justify current valuations and be compensated for the rise in rates.

I believe that investors consistently reward growth in stocks, even with more income-oriented groups like REITs.…
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Insider buying can be a useful tool in identifying stocks that may be ready to move. I typically don’t put much weight into analyst recommendations because they don’t have any skin in the game. But when CEOs and other executives – who know more about the company than you and I – put their money where their mouths are and make significant purchases, I listen.

And I’ve had my ear especially close to the ground over the past few weeks. Market chaos like what we’ve seen of late chums the water, turning insiders into frenzied buyers who think they can get a deal.…
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“First-level” investors – those who buy and sell on headlines – mistakenly believe that real estate investment trust (REIT) profits will suffer if rates rise.

Sure, in the short run, the “rates up, REITs down” theory puts on quite the show. When the 10-Year Treasury’s yield rises, REITs usually fall. And when its yield drops, REITs usually rally. This inverse relationship tends to hold up over multiple days, weeks and even months:

A Short-Run Seesaw Between REITs and T-Bill Yields

The theory backing up this price action says that, because REITs borrow money to grow their property empires, they need cheap cash.…
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